Get Ready for a Bull Run, Says Curran Investment Management

Mitsubishi MS09TW
June 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Curranh Investment Management believes recent equity performance is predictingb the beginning of another historicbull market, a bull marke t that will produce extraordinary long-term The worst ten year period for US equit performance dating back to 1880, ended in 2008. Domestic and internationakl economic newsis dismal. Investors worldwide have professed theitr lack of faith by flooding the fixexd income markets searching for a safe We believe similar periods of markegt behavior can help predict what will happen from We are optimistic for futurse equity returns and believe the risk paradigmhas shifted.
A long-term equity investment today has less historical risk and highef probable return than perhaps any periodsincs 1880. Ten Year Rollingv What? We have preparecd an exhaustive analysis of historical equityu market data returns based on ten year rollingt returns datingto 1880. Using single periord (one year, three year) returnn data to decipher historical trendsa presentsa problem. Any one year of returnb data is impacted by micro economicf factors that are unique to that giveh year and may not relats toa long-term economic cycler (example: September 11, 2001 markef crash).
Using a ten year rollingg average, (previous ten year cycle for eachyear evaluated) allows us to illustratee and predict based on broax market reactions to the longer term economic cycle. The goal is to identifhy common market trends that have existed in multipler periods of varying fiscal and monetary polict and during varying domestic and internationaleconomi climates. Why Are We Optimistic? We have just livedr through the worst ten year perios for equity returnssince 1880. If we compare five similae periodssince 1880, each period has been followed by a ten year periof that has achieved annualized doubl e digit returns.
These periods have triggered the beginningof long-term bull marketsd that have seen investors experience 20% annualizefd investment returns at their peaks. An investodr would have receiveda 20% investmen t return for ten years straight. Simply put, we have been througjh the worst ten yearperiod ever. Similare periods, no matter what economic climate, have bred new bull marketsx that producedoutstanding long-term resultsx for investors. ?
We think we are close to the beginningf of theBull Run, but the timing is difficult to In the previous ten year periods following the dismal years three, four, and five have averaged the greatest Earlier years have seen some sideway movement, while later years have tapered off in the acceleration of The equity markets have historicallhy rebounded much faster than the overall Once an economic rebound is clear, we usuall y have already experienced the largest percentages increases in equity prices. Why Do We Think The Risk ParadigjmHas Shifted? After the carnage of the 2008 equituy market, the ten year number dipped into the negative zone.
There have been four previous timesz when thishas occurred; we call them marker "troughs" (the period of time the averagew stays in the negative zone). Some of these troughzs admittedly last for overa However, equity market performance durinv these "trough" periods is relatively neutral. Prolonged shar p declines once we enterthese "trough" periods are not common. Based on historicakl data the real risk is we are enterinvga long-term consolidation/sideways period. This risk has historically producedc greater than evenequity returns. Curran Investmenyt Management currently managesover $180 million in client assets.
The firm provideds comprehensive wealth management services to includreinvestment management, retirement and estatde planning, insurance and a broad range of financial In addition to their headquarters in New York, the firm has officew in Cape May, New Jersey and Contact: Thomas J. Curran Presidentf tcurran@curranllc.com Andrew Black Wealth ManagementStrategist (518) 391-4200 ablack@curranllc.com